In the first half of the year, the logistics operation showed a steady and good momentum of development, in the logistics demand growth is stable, the scale of the logistics market continues to expand, the price of logistics services rebounds at the same time, the logistics supply side structural reform is steadily promoted, the logistics demand structure shows positive changes, the measures to reduce the logistics cost in the economic operation have achieved initial results, the logistics cost per unit of GDP has slowed down, and the operating conditions of logistics enterprises have improved.
First, in the first half of the year, the logistics operation was stable and improving
(1) Logistics demand has risen steadily, and the structure has shown positive changes
Logistics demand is stable and rising. In the first half of 2017, the total amount of social logistics in the country was 118.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% at comparable prices, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the same period last year, and an increase of 0.2 percentage points from January to May. Overall, the growth rate of logistics demand in each quarter was stable, and at the same time, the growth rate expanded over the same period last year, and the trend of rebound was more obvious.
The structure of logistics demand has shown positive changes. The logistics demand structure has been continuously optimized and the transformation and upgrading have been steadily promoted. From the perspective of demand structure, the logistics demand related to people's livelihood consumption has grown strongly, and the logistics demand of consumption has maintained a rapid growth of more than 30% between units and residents; At the same time, domestic and foreign demand has stabilized significantly, international logistics demand is better, and the growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months, the pattern of logistics demand growth momentum has been further improved, and the conversion of new and old kinetic energy has continued to accelerate. From the perspective of changes, the proportion of total logistics of agricultural products and industrial products has decreased, and the proportion of imports, units and residents' logistics demand has increased, and the contribution rate to logistics demand has increased.
The growth rate of demand for industrial logistics has risen steadily. In the first half of the year, the total amount of industrial logistics increased by 6.9% year-on-year at comparable prices, 0.9 percentage points faster than the same period last year, and 0.1 percentage points faster than the first quarter, of which the monthly growth rate in June was 7.6%, 1.1 percentage points faster than that in May.
From the perspective of composition, the key tasks of "three to one reduction and one supplement" have begun to show results, and the internal structure of industrial logistics demand continues to be optimized: traditional industries continue to slow down, and high-end industries maintain rapid growth. In the first half of the year, mining logistics demand fell by 1.0%; In the first half of the year, the logistics demand of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 13.1% and 11.5% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate was 6.2 and 4.6 percentage points higher than that of total industrial logistics, accounting for 12.2% and 32.2% of the industries above designated size. In particular, electronics, automobiles, instrumentation, special equipment and general equipment manufacturing and other fields increased by 13.9%, 13.1%, 12.5%, 12% and 11.2% respectively, all maintaining double-digit growth rates.
The demand for import logistics has stabilized and improved. In the first half of the year, the total import logistics volume increased by 12.5% year-on-year, an increase of 4.9 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, and maintained a growth rate of more than 10% for five consecutive months. The rapid growth of import logistics demand is mainly affected by the following factors:
The domestic economy is stable and improving, driving the flow of imports to continue to increase. In the first half of the year, the domestic economy continued to be stable and improving, and China's manufacturing PMI was 51.7 in June, which was in the boom range for 11 consecutive months. The domestic economy is stable and improving, stimulating the increase in import demand.
The effect of policy measures to stabilize the growth of foreign trade continues to appear. Since the first half of the year, China has vigorously promoted the construction of the "Belt and Road", and the opening of the market and the promotion of trade have been increasing, which has brought a number of benefits to China's foreign trade. The effect of various policies and measures for the steady growth of foreign trade continued to appear, which played an important role in promoting the stability and improvement of foreign trade imports and exports in the first half of the year.
In terms of variety, the import logistics demand for bulk commodities such as iron ore, crude oil, and soybeans has rebounded steadily. In the first half of the year, China imported 539 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 9.3%; crude oil was 212 million tons, an increase of 13.8%; soybeans were 44.81 million tons, an increase of 14.2%.
The logistics demand of units and residents is growing strongly. In the first half of the year, the total logistics volume of units and residents increased by 30.9% year-on-year, down 15.3 percentage points from the same period last year, and although the growth rate fell from the same period last year, it was still 23.7 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total social logistics, maintaining a rapid growth of more than 30%.
Affected by e-commerce logistics promotions, the growth of total logistics business volume in China's e-commerce logistics index accelerated significantly in June, with a year-on-year increase of 50% and a month-on-month increase of 55%, and logistics orders showed a peak in the year. Among them, the impact of consumption upgrading has become more obvious, and household appliances, 3C and fresh food have grown rapidly.
(2) The quality of logistics operation is getting better, and the logistics efficiency is improving
1. The level of logistics costs for economic operation has decreased
In the first half of the year, the quality of logistics operation tended to improve, and the logistics field made steady progress in reducing costs and increasing efficiency. In the first half of the year, the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP was 14.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter and the same as the same period last year. The decline in the level of logistics costs per unit of GDP reflects the improvement of the efficiency of the current economic operation, and the progress of "cost reduction" has been made.
2. The synergy between logistics and industry is enhanced
In the first half of the year, the quality of logistics growth tended to improve, and the synergy between logistics and national economic development was enhanced.
(1) The adjustment of transportation structure and industrial upgrading are more coordinated
The physical volume of logistics increased steadily, with the freight volume increasing by 10.0% over the previous year, the growth rate increasing by 6.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the freight turnover increasing by 10.0% and the growth rate increasing by 9.4 percentage points. With the recovery of the physical volume of logistics, the growth rate of transportation costs has rebounded, but the transportation efficiency has been improved, and the transportation structure tends to improve.
In the context of the in-depth promotion of supply-side structural reform and the further optimization of the structure of production and demand, the service quality and level of railway and water transportation have been improved, bulk commodities and other goods have returned from the road, and railway and water transportation have continued to grow rapidly, and the proportion of railway and water transportation costs has increased by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points. The ratio of transportation expenses to GDP in the first half of the year was 7.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter.
(2) Warehousing and logistics turnover is maintained efficiently
Since the beginning of this year, the efficiency of warehousing and logistics has remained at a high level. In the first half of the year, the average inventory turnover index in China's warehousing index averaged 52.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the same period last year. In June, the average inventory turnover index was 50.5%, and the turnover efficiency maintained high growth for many consecutive months. At the end of May, the inventory turnover days of finished products of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 0.7 days year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of finished product inventory fell by 1.1 percentage points compared with the end of April.
(3) Deep integration of logistics and related industries
Logistics enterprises continue to explore in the field of organizational innovation and model innovation, and deeply integrate with manufacturing and other related industries to promote the convenience, coordination, synergy and initiative of economic operation. For example, Delide supply chain logistics quickly realized the flexible adjustment of the organization, improved the supply chain service capacity, grew rapidly in the fields of medicine, energy and high-end manufacturing, long-term logistics penetrated into the auto parts logistics market, SF Express laid out cold chain fresh food, traditional medicine logistics actively embraced the Internet, and JD aimed at smart logistics and green logistics, and tried to quickly deploy and seize the opportunity. Standard pallets are being shared with the basic carrier units and are being extended to the entire chain.
3. The price of logistics services has rebounded steadily
In the first half of the year, the quality of logistics growth tended to improve, the overall supply and demand relationship of the market was good, and the price of logistics services rebounded.
Road transport prices rebounded amid fluctuations. Judging from the situation in the first half of the year, the demand for highway logistics was generally stable. The China Highway Logistics Freight Index, jointly surveyed by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and Linan Logistics Group, was 107.0 points in June, rebounding for two consecutive months, up 0.69% month-on-month; The average in the first half of the year was 109.3 points, an increase of 9.2% over the same period last year. In June, the weekly index showed a gradual stabilization trend, and the index in June rebounded from the high point at the beginning of the year. From the perspective of the sub-model index, the index of each model is mixed. Among them, the vehicle index, which is dominated by bulk commodities and inter-regional transportation, rebounded by 0.75% month-on-month to 104.5 points, rebounding for two consecutive months and increasing by 11.1% over the same period last year. The LTL index was generally flat, and the light and heavy cargo indices were mixed. Among them, the LTL light cargo index was 116.6 points, down 0.68% from the previous month; The LTL heavy cargo index was 105.3 points, up 1.57% from the previous month.
(3) The logistics operation environment has improved, and investment in the field of shortcomings has continued to be strengthened
1. Improvement of the logistics infrastructure environment
In the first half of the year, the investment in logistics-related fixed assets increased efficiency, and the investment in the short board of infrastructure grew rapidly. According to the data, the fixed asset investment completion index in the logistics industry prosperity index averaged 53.9% in the first half of the year, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous year, and remained above 53% for four consecutive months, reflecting the continuous improvement of the infrastructure conditions of logistics operation. At the same time, investment in infrastructure sector has grown rapidly. According to the data, the investment in the road transport industry increased by 23.2%; Investment in water conservancy management increased by 17.5 percent.
2. The financial situation of logistics enterprises has improved
In the first half of the year, the capital environment of logistics enterprises picked up, the financing environment improved, and the shortage of funds eased. According to the data, the capital turnover index in the logistics industry prosperity index averaged 53.3% in the first half of the year, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous year. It has remained above 53% for four consecutive months, reflecting the continuous improvement of the capital environment of logistics enterprises.
Second, in the first half of the year, the pressure on logistics operation still exists
(1) The upward pressure on logistics costs is still great
At present, the economy has entered a critical period of improving quality and efficiency, especially in the context of the rigid rise in factor costs and the unabolition of operating costs. The benefits of enterprises and social economy can only form new profit margins by improving efficiency and reducing costs.
In the first half of the year, the total cost of social logistics was 5.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. The growth rate increased by 7.5 percentage points over the same period last year. It is 0.2 percentage points higher than the first quarter, and the upward pressure on logistics costs is still greater. Judging from the data, the growth rate of the total cost of social logistics rebounded by the acceleration of the growth rate of logistics physical volume, the freight volume and cargo turnover in the first half of the year increased by 10% year-on-year, an increase of 6.9 and 9.4 percentage points over the same period last year;
In addition, it should also be noted that the current logistics management methods and organizational methods in China need to be optimized, and there are still uncoordinated and unbalanced developments between production and operation links, between enterprises, between industries, and between regions.
First, the organization of transportation links still needs to be optimized. In the first half of the year, the loading and unloading and handling costs accounted for 26.2% of the transportation costs, which shows that the coordination of transportation links still needs to be further optimized. The lack of reasonable division of labor in various modes of transportation and the multiple loading and unloading of goods also make there too many logistics links, the proportion of multimodal transport is relatively low, and the effective connection and coordination are insufficient. At present, the development level of multimodal transport in China is still low, and the scale of transport volume only accounts for about 3% of the freight volume of the whole society.
The second is to destock the remaining space. Entering June, the inventory turnover index in China's warehousing index fell by 2.7 percentage points to 50.5%, close to the boom and wither line. At present, the turnover of warehousing and logistics is slowing down, the turnover has slowed down, and there are more inbound than outbound. It shows that there are breakpoints in all aspects of logistics, and inventory costs increase accordingly. The data shows that the storage cost in the storage link in the first half of the year has accelerated compared with the previous growth rate, an increase of 0.3 percentage points.
(2) There is still a gap between the supply and demand of logistics services
Since the beginning of this year, the overall efficiency of logistics enterprises has been better, the scale of logistics services has been expanding, the willingness of enterprises to expand has increased, the growth rate has rebounded significantly, the gap between supply and demand has shown signs of expanding, the situation of oversupply in some areas has intensified, and service prices have slowed down. The data shows that the price of logistics services in the second quarter showed a slight downward trend compared with the first quarter and the beginning of the year. For example, China's road logistics freight index was 112.1 points in the first quarter and 106.5 points in the second quarter, down 5.0% quarter-on-quarter. The decline of the index indicates that the price increase is gradually narrowing compared with the same period last year, and the instability of prices has brought uncertainty to the operation of logistics enterprises.
(3) The operating profitability of logistics enterprises has slowed down
In June, the main business profit index in China's logistics industry prosperity index fell for two consecutive months, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month to 51.9%, indicating that the profitability of logistics enterprises has slowed down.
Third, the second half of the logistics trend judgment
The logistics operation environment is getting better. In the first half of the year, the average manufacturing PMI was 51.5%, up 1.7 percentage points from the same period last year. From the perspective of the average level, the high-energy-consuming industries remained below 50%, while the average values of the equipment manufacturing industry, high-tech industries and consumer goods industries remained above 52%. Among them, the average level of high-tech industries is the highest, reaching 54%. It reflects that the process of optimizing China's economic structure is continuing, and the growth momentum of new forms of business and new driving forces is accumulating. The trend of the PMI index in the second quarter was basically stable, with an average of 51.4%, indicating that the foundation for economic stability and improvement tended to be consolidated, and the economic situation in the second quarter was basically the same as that in the first quarter.
On the whole, the logistics operation has entered a stable range, and it is expected that the logistics demand is expected to maintain a moderate and stable growth pattern in the second half of the year. From the perspective of each quarter, July to August is a relatively stable period of logistics demand, there may be a seasonal decline, and the later September and October will rebound steadily with the advent of the peak season of production and construction. From a structural point of view, with the transformation of economic growth mode and industrial upgrading, the demand for bulk commodity-related logistics may slow down, and the demand for high-tech and consumption upgrading will still maintain rapid growth.
From the perspective of the leading index, the new orders index and business activity expectation index in the logistics prosperity index were 54.9% and 57.0%, respectively, which remained at a high level. On the whole, the stability of logistics operation is still strong, and the third quarter is expected to continue the steady and positive development trend, and the total amount of social logistics is expected to grow by 6.8-7.1% in the whole year.